Conference Expansion Strikes Back!
Texas and Oklahoma are fleeing the Big 12. What does this latest impending round of realignment mean for BYU, Utah, and Utah State?
Conference expansion rumors multiply at a faster rate each year than Marvel Cinematic Universe movies and TV shows. This time around, expansion talk has some actual substance thanks to the actions of Texas and Oklahoma.
You can wave goodbye to the Big 12 as we know it. Texas and Oklahoma seriously crippled the P5 league when they announced they will not renew their grant of rights agreement with the Big 12 after 2025. It's all but a done deal that the Longhorns and Sooners will join the SEC.
While the Big 12 could still survive in one form or another, what remains once all the conference expansion dominoes fall will assuredly lose power conference status. Other current Big 12 members are actively courting the Big 10, ACC, and Pac-12 behind the scenes, anticipating that each league will mirror the SEC and expand to 16-team leagues. In essence, the other P5 leagues will start circling the Big 12 remnants like a flock of vultures picking a carcass clean.
A Ripple Effect
This Big 12 implosion promises to reshape college football and other sports even more profoundly than the 2010 expansion tidal wave that ultimately decimated the Big East, Mountain West, Conference USA, and the WAC. How will a new round of realignment impact the fortunes of BYU, Utah, and Utah State?
I dusted off my crystal ball to examine potential expansion scenarios awaiting each FBS school in the Beehive State.
Utah
The Utes are in a favorable position amid another round of impending expansion chaos. Utah has a solid football program, is an AAU member, and is located in a growing media market. Stronger leadership heads up the Pac-12 now with Larry Scott's ouster, so the Pac-12 seems less vulnerable to be picked apart by other leagues than it did near the end of Scott's tenure as league commissioner.
If the Pac-12 expands into the Pac-16, Utah will likely be grouped in an eastern division with any newcomers from the Big 12. Various reports have listed Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, TCU, and Baylor as possible expansion candidates for the league. I'm not sold on TCU and Baylor getting invitations, given the Pac-12's traditional opposition to adding private schools with religious affiliations to the league roster. My guess is Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are locks to go west. I anticipate Kansas getting an invitation to join the Big 10. If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pac-12 grab a pair of Mountain West schools to reach 16 teams. Some combination of Boise State, San Diego State, or UNLV would likely earn invitations in this scenario. Or perhaps a wildcard scenario unfolds where Air Force joins for football only and Gonzaga is added for all other sports. It will be interesting to see what the Pac-12 ultimately decides to do.
Once the expansion carousel stops moving again, Utah will be in a strong position. As part of a hypothetical Pac-16 eastern division, the Utes would carve out an immediate position as annual divisional title contenders in football. Men's basketball would experience a tougher road with the addition of multiple strong basketball programs. The schedules in both sports would feature some fun annual matchups and a chance to create exciting new rivalries or renew dormant ones.
BYU
Did BYU dodge a bullet by ultimately not getting a Big 12 invitation a few years ago? It's impossible to say if things would have played out any differently if that league had returned to 12 teams and the Cougars were one of those teams.
The irony, now, is any Big 12 remnants not scooped up by other leagues would likely lobby BYU to join their ranks as a matter of survival. Does such a move make sense for BYU? What is the best move for the Cougars going forward?
Three possible scenarios face BYU in an expansion free-for-all:
Join a reconfigured Big 12 (if enough teams remain post-expansion).
Join the AAC if the American decides to expand to 16 teams.
Stick it out as an FBS independent.
Joining the Big 12 makes sense if enough current teams are left behind to entice top teams from the American and Mountain West to combine to form a G5 super league. Consider if, for example, a nucleus of Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, and Iowa State added Cincinnati, Boise State, Memphis, UCF, South Florida, SMU, Houston, and Air Force to the ranks. BYU would be foolish to stubbornly cling to independence in that scenario. The Cougars would have better access to a 12-team college football playoff. The schedule would still be challenging but more manageable. Recruiting would improve across the board. And, honestly, the TV deal for this hypothetical league would probably match or exceed BYU's current deal with ESPN.
Making a move to the American if it absorbs any remaining Big 12 remnants would also make sense if BYU is concerned with improving playoff access and recruiting. True, the Cougars have done a decent job over the past few years with finding overlooked players and molding them into standouts. But you can't expect to play the loaded schedules BYU wants to play and consistently post 10-win seasons when you mostly rely on a bunch of plucky underdogs. It isn't realistic.
One thing is certain. Sticking with the status quo is not a feasible long-term plan for BYU given how rapidly the college sports landscape is changing. Unless your school is Notre Dame, independence limits chances to earn a playoff spot, no matter if four teams or 12 teams are involved. That, in turn, will make recruiting top talent to Provo an increasingly tougher sell. I’m also skeptical that ESPN will pony up enough future TV money to the Cougars to make independence a path worth following indefinitely.
Utah State
Poor Utah State. Realignment stalks the Aggies like an angry monster, lashing out from the shadows and attacking every time they finally move a step upward on the conference food chain.
The Mountain West Conference is more likely to be raided than to strengthen itself when all the expansion dominoes fall. Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV, Air Force, and Colorado State will be attractive targets for stronger leagues looking to prevent themselves from falling behind. Boise State and San Diego State were set to join the Big East at one time before an 11th-hour reversal. Multiple Mountain West schools actively solicited Big 12 membership when the league previously considered expansion. If several top Mountain West schools go elsewhere, the league will resemble the watered-down versions of the WAC and Big West that Utah State fled.
This isn’t great news for the Aggies if it happens. Utah State isn’t a likely candidate to join a stronger league. Certainly, USU will have an easier path at winning league titles in a weaker Mountain West. But that’s a small consolation for how the moves will impact Utah State’s fortunes elsewhere. A watered-down version of the Mountain West isn’t likely to secure an automatic football playoff bid for its champion. TV revenue for the league will grow even more scarce. Recruiting top talent to Logan will become even more challenging than it is now. And USU will once again be stuck in a perennial one-bid league in basketball.